Points alone answer the wrong question. A haul from a player most of the field owns barely moves you; the same haul from a player few own moves you a lot. Each projection here is weighted by how many rivals already have him.
Effective ownership falls back to global ownership until your league’s squads are public.
| Player | Price | EO | xP | Gain | Risk | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sword | £4.6m | 7.1% | 17.8 | +16.5 | −1.3 | |
| Sword | £4.0m | 6.9% | 16.4 | +15.3 | −1.1 | |
| £7.9m | 20.6% | 18.6 | +14.7 | −3.8 | ||
| £8.0m | 15.7% | 15.2 | +12.8 | −2.4 | ||
| Sword | £4.5m | 6.0% | 13.6 | +12.8 | −0.8 | |
| Sword | £6.1m | 5.8% | 12.9 | +12.2 | −0.7 | |
| Sword | £6.1m | 5.6% | 12.3 | +11.6 | −0.7 | |
| FWDEmersonnIPS | Sword | £5.5m | 3.5% | 11.7 | +11.3 | −0.4 |
| Sword | £5.0m | 0.6% | 11.0 | +11.0 | −0.1 | |
| £6.1m | 16.3% | 12.9 | +10.8 | −2.1 | ||
| Sword | £5.8m | 2.6% | 11.0 | +10.7 | −0.3 | |
| £5.3m | 17.2% | 12.8 | +10.6 | −2.2 | ||
| MIDBelloumiHUL | Sword | £5.1m | 5.1% | 11.0 | +10.4 | −0.6 |
| £5.8m | 28.6% | 14.4 | +10.3 | −4.1 | ||
| DEFMuharemovićLEE | Sword | £5.0m | 4.3% | 10.6 | +10.2 | −0.5 |
| Sword | £5.0m | 8.8% | 11.1 | +10.1 | −1.0 | |
| Sword | £6.1m | 6.7% | 10.8 | +10.1 | −0.7 | |
| Sword | £5.6m | 8.2% | 10.9 | +10.0 | −0.9 | |
| £9.1m | 22.5% | 12.9 | +10.0 | −2.9 | ||
| Sword | £4.9m | 0.2% | 10.0 | +10.0 | −0.0 | |
| Sword | £5.3m | 1.9% | 10.0 | +9.8 | −0.2 | |
| Sword | £5.7m | 3.4% | 10.0 | +9.6 | −0.3 | |
| Sword | £5.0m | 0.2% | 9.6 | +9.6 | −0.0 | |
| Sword | £5.5m | 0.9% | 9.6 | +9.5 | −0.1 | |
| Sword | £5.4m | 0.9% | 9.5 | +9.4 | −0.1 | |
| Sword | £4.5m | 1.5% | 9.6 | +9.4 | −0.1 | |
| Sword | £4.0m | 2.9% | 9.6 | +9.4 | −0.3 | |
| Sword | £5.5m | 0.1% | 9.2 | +9.2 | −0.0 | |
| Shield | £7.0m | 32.9% | 13.5 | +9.0 | −4.4 | |
| Sword | £5.7m | 0.2% | 9.0 | +9.0 | −0.0 | |
| Sword | £5.5m | 2.4% | 9.2 | +9.0 | −0.2 | |
| Sword | £5.4m | 0.7% | 9.0 | +9.0 | −0.1 | |
| Sword | £6.0m | 3.2% | 9.2 | +8.9 | −0.3 | |
| Sword | £4.9m | 6.6% | 9.6 | +8.9 | −0.6 | |
| £6.2m | 11.3% | 9.9 | +8.8 | −1.1 | ||
| Sword | £4.5m | 0.7% | 8.8 | +8.7 | −0.1 | |
| Sword | £5.0m | 0.4% | 8.7 | +8.7 | −0.0 | |
| Sword | £6.6m | 6.0% | 9.2 | +8.7 | −0.6 | |
| Sword | £4.0m | 2.7% | 8.8 | +8.6 | −0.2 | |
| Sword | £4.8m | 0.2% | 8.6 | +8.5 | −0.0 |
Gain is xP × (1 − EO): what owning him wins you against the field. Risk is xP × EO: what not owning him costs you when he returns. A template forward can have a large risk and a small gain. Owning him does not win rank, it only stops you losing it.
Live effective ownership is well served elsewhere. What this does differently is apply it to a forward projection, so it helps before a deadline rather than during a match. Global ownership understates true EO because it excludes captaincy, so load a league for the real figure once squads are public.