Gameweek 11 deadline…
Points alone answer the wrong question. A haul from a player most of the field owns barely moves you; the same haul from a player few own moves you a lot. Each projection here is weighted by how many rivals already have him.
Effective ownership falls back to global ownership until your league’s squads are public.
| Player | Price | EO | xP | Gain | Risk | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 FWDBarryEVE | £5.7m | 10.7% | 15.2 | +13.6 | −1.6 | |
 FWDEvanilsonBOU | £6.5m | 23.7% | 16.4 | +12.5 | −3.9 | |
 MIDE.Le FéeSUN | Sword | £5.7m | 2.7% | 12.7 | +12.3 | −0.3 |
 MIDIwobiFUL | Sword | £5.4m | 1.5% | 12.1 | +11.9 | −0.2 |
 FWDMcBurnieHUL | Sword | £5.5m | 1.7% | 11.8 | +11.6 | −0.2 |
 MIDMbeumoMUN | £7.9m | 19.1% | 14.0 | +11.4 | −2.7 | |
| DEFMuharemovićLEE | Sword | £5.1m | 6.4% | 12.1 | +11.3 | −0.8 |
 DEFBogleLEE | £4.8m | 11.2% | 12.5 | +11.1 | −1.4 | |
 MIDAyariBHA | Sword | £5.5m | 2.3% | 11.3 | +11.0 | −0.3 |
 MIDSzoboszlaiLIV | £6.7m | 13.4% | 12.6 | +11.0 | −1.7 | |
 DEFHillBOU | Sword | £5.6m | 3.0% | 11.1 | +10.8 | −0.3 |
 DEFFofanaCHE | Sword | £5.0m | 0.3% | 10.8 | +10.8 | −0.0 |
 DEFVan HeckeTOT | £5.1m | 14.6% | 12.4 | +10.6 | −1.8 | |
 MIDRayanBOU | Sword | £6.3m | 2.4% | 10.8 | +10.5 | −0.3 |
 DEFJustinLEE | Sword | £4.5m | 2.4% | 10.8 | +10.5 | −0.3 |
 MIDWirtzLIV | Sword | £7.2m | 5.5% | 11.0 | +10.4 | −0.6 |
 FWDN.JacksonAVL | Shield | £7.1m | 31.0% | 15.0 | +10.4 | −4.7 |
 MIDDewsbury-HallEVE | Sword | £6.7m | 7.2% | 11.1 | +10.3 | −0.8 |
 MIDRöhlEVE | Sword | £4.9m | 0.0% | 10.2 | +10.2 | −0.0 |
 MIDGrayTOT | Sword | £4.9m | 0.2% | 10.1 | +10.1 | −0.0 |
 MIDGibbs-WhiteNFO | Sword | £7.8m | 9.3% | 11.1 | +10.1 | −1.0 |
 FWDDelapNFO | Sword | £5.3m | 1.6% | 10.2 | +10.0 | −0.2 |
 MIDBarnesNEW | Sword | £6.1m | 6.6% | 10.7 | +10.0 | −0.7 |
 MIDKluivertBOU | Sword | £5.9m | 0.9% | 10.0 | +9.9 | −0.1 |
 FWDIsakLIV | £9.3m | 25.0% | 13.0 | +9.7 | −3.2 | |
| DEFVuskovicBHA | Sword | £5.3m | 9.2% | 10.7 | +9.7 | −1.0 |
 DEFSmithBOU | Sword | £4.5m | 0.2% | 9.6 | +9.6 | −0.0 |
 DEFTruffertBOU | Sword | £5.4m | 3.3% | 9.9 | +9.6 | −0.3 |
 MIDTavernierBOU | Shield | £6.7m | 31.3% | 14.0 | +9.6 | −4.4 |
 MIDTonaliTOT | Sword | £5.3m | 2.0% | 9.7 | +9.6 | −0.2 |
| DEFSilvaBOU | Sword | £5.1m | 3.7% | 9.9 | +9.5 | −0.4 |
 GKPPetrovićBOU | Sword | £4.5m | 3.2% | 9.8 | +9.5 | −0.3 |
 MIDMcAteeNFO | Sword | £5.5m | 0.1% | 9.4 | +9.4 | −0.0 |
 DEFGabrielARS | £8.1m | 26.1% | 12.7 | +9.4 | −3.3 | |
 DEFN.WilliamsNFO | Sword | £4.9m | 5.3% | 9.9 | +9.4 | −0.5 |
 DEFBasseyFUL | Sword | £4.5m | 1.3% | 9.3 | +9.2 | −0.1 |
 MIDNetoCHE | Sword | £6.6m | 5.0% | 9.6 | +9.1 | −0.5 |
| MIDEncisoIPS | Sword | £5.5m | 1.1% | 9.2 | +9.1 | −0.1 |
 MIDArmstrongEVE | Sword | £5.0m | 0.3% | 9.1 | +9.1 | −0.0 |
 MIDMcGinnAVL | Sword | £5.4m | 3.6% | 9.4 | +9.0 | −0.3 |
Gain is xP × (1 − EO): what owning him wins you against the field. Risk is xP × EO: what not owning him costs you when he returns. A template forward can have a large risk and a small gain. Owning him does not win rank, it only stops you losing it.
Live effective ownership is well served elsewhere. What this does differently is apply it to a forward projection, so it helps before a deadline rather than during a match. Global ownership understates true EO because it excludes captaincy, so load a league for the real figure once squads are public.